Why the Mumbai Attacks shouldn’t have surprised anyone

The story of why this attack was allowed to happen.

The latest Mumbai tragedy is the fourteenth terrorist attack on the city since 1993, raising the total terrorism-related death toll in the city to 701. With history repeating itself yet again, one has to wonder how many more attacks the so-called “spirit of Mumbai,” if there ever was one, can bear before it breaks. Of course, the most tragic aspect of the attack remains that it came as no surprise, at least to those who were observing the situation closely.

While no one could have predicted where exactly the attack would be and on what date, given the developments of the last two years gave a clear indication that a major attack is coming somewhere in the middle of 2011. In fact, we provided this risk assessment regularly to public and the government, to be ignored regularly. Worse yet, if this attack receives the same apathetic response that was given to the previous indicators, we can expect more and bigger attacks on other major cities by the year’s end . 

The meaningless ritual of Terrorism

We as South Asian people have a thing for rituals. Be it religion or society or governance, we have an uncanny ability to distill a legitimate process into a rite devoid of any semblance of meaning or purpose that we continue to faithfully follow eternally without ever questioning its efficacy. Bollywood churns out movies based on the same formula, government follows the same archaic rules written a century ago and housewives, across the country, wake up every day at four in the morning to water their Tulsi plants, the sole symbol of vegetation in their household. 

Now, it seems, terrorism has also become a meaningless ritual, a theatrical performance where everyone faithfully acts out his or her role, disregarding any possibility that the whole exercise may be pointless. 

In this theatre, we all know our roles. The terrorists need to kill random people in a random city. The government needs to be unapologetically apathetic. Media needs to be outraged and jingoistic. Politicians need to resign, safe in the knowledge that they would be absorbed back into the government soon enough. Civil society needs to celebrate the artificial notion of the “Mumbai spirit”. Hotels and multiplexes need to start half-heartedly body searching their patrons again. As for the people, unfortunately, their role is simply to die.

As for the usefulness of this theatre, if there is any, it was lost long ago in the ashes of few first bombs that killed innocents in India. What does anyone gain out of all this? 

Did Al Jazeera tweak the whole narrative of Arab World Protests?

Despite the network’s spectacular converge of the Egyptian protests, one can’t help but suspect its impartiality given that it is owned by a 185-year-old royal family that has friends and enemies all over the Arab World. Of the two major protests going on the Middle East, why is Al Jazeera (and the world) covering one more than the other.

Al Jazeera has come a long way from the time when it was just known for showing Osama Bin Laden tapes. During the Egyptian crisis the entire international media, including BBC World and Reuters, were at least a step behind the Arab news network. At one point, I think, even Twitter was panting with all the running it had to do to keep with Al Jazeera. Indisputably the historic success at Tahrir Square does have a vital contribution from the live 24/7 coverage by the channel.

The country with two governments nationalized/robbed its banks

What do you do when international sanctions create a major cash flow crisis in the country and the banks refuse to give out salaries to your government employees? Simple, just send some men with guns to take over the banks and claim them nationalized. At least that’s what Ivory Coast president dictator Laurent Gbagbo has done. 

US arming Afghan Civilians: A very bad idea

One of the most underrated stories of last week (overshadowed by the roar of thousands of people from Tahrir Square) was a new “experiment” by US forces to bring peace in Afghanistan that can be succinctly summarized in six words - let’s give Afghan civilian some guns. Yes, because what Afghanistan needs is more guns. Aimed at achieving US Military’s greatest strategic objective – get the hell out of Afghanistan – this scheme promises to be part of that long list: schemes that are totally going to blow up in US Military's face.

What is happening in Middle East now as protests continue in Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran and Libya

Yemeni President Ali Saleh

The protests in the Middle East are spreading like a wild fire threatening to engulf the whole region, check that, the whole world. After the success of Egypt protests, every capital from the Gulf of Eden to the Atlantic Coast is seeing at least some level of protests. I have put together a “what is going on where” brief to give you a quick snapshot of how this historical event is unfolding. If you haven’t already, read the previous two briefs (here and here) by this blog because this one tries not to repeat those points.

Egypt Protests: No democracy for Egypt in 2011, I am betting money on it

It’s official. I am willing to bet INR 5000/ US$ 100/ GBP 70 on the fact that Egypt shall not see democracy for any foreseeable future, despite eighteen days of spectacular struggle by the Egyptian people and the general euphoria that has taken over the world. You can post the name of your favorite charity on this blog’s Facebook page and if within the next eight months (i.e. 15 September 2011) free and fair elections (by international standards) are held in Egypt, I will donate the said amount of money to one of these charities. Some people may consider this bet to be in poor taste but I believe that certain amount of cynicism is exactly what is needed to be infused in the current narrative of the Egypt Protests.

Why Mubarak’s Fall unlikely to bring democracy in Egypt

Mubarak may be gone, but a spontaneous people’s revolution means lack of strength to negotiate with the new military government. Chances of democracy being instituted in the country remain slight because pressure of the protests has disintegrated.

About a decade ago, well-respected professor from Stanford, James Fearon, wrote an interesting paper “Why do some civil wars last so much longer than others?” (.pdf) explaining the length of Bosnian Crisis. He explained that in Bosnia the ethnic majority faced something called Commitment Problems. It logic goes like this: Party A (the majority) and Party B (the minority) are dividing country’s resources after independence. A promises to give B 20% of the resources if B lets A form the government. But once government is formed, A is stronger and able to suppress B, giving them only 10% instead of agreed 20. Hence, it is said that A faces Commitment Problems.

A good Mubarak joke

Joshua Keating’s blog at Foreign Policy had following joke on Mubarak:

Mubarak dies and meets Nasser and Sadat in the afterlife. They ask him, "Poison or parade?" (Conspiracy theorists allege Nasser was poisoned; Sadat was assassinated during a military parade.)

Mubarak shrugs and answers: "Facebook."

You can follow DoT on Twitter @DoT_Sandeep or Facebook facebook.com/dreamsofatypewriter

Military skirmishes between Thailand and Cambodia flare up once again

On Friday, firing between Thai and Cambodian militaries erupted killing 4 and displacing more than 3000. The animosity between the two dates several decades, yet both have found a way to cooperated economically despite occasional flare-ups. May be others, like India-Pakistan or Israel-Palestine, can learn something from the Thai-Cambodian model.

Housekeeping Announcement

Just letting everyone know that I am travelling for this week, so the blog updates might be erratic.

PS: Please mail me if you have any leads or tips for stories that I can chase in Bangladesh, or any exotic food that I should try.

You can follow DoT on Twitter @DoT_Sandeep or Facebook facebook.com/dreamsofatypewriter