Dyslexic Media: My rebuttal to The Economist rebuttal

Last night I wrote post about New Delhi lacking a China Policy and an appeal to get one. As it turns out, (pointed out by Achal K) The Economist had anticipated my post and published a rebuttal to my argument almost a month ago. I tell you, these Economist reporters have nothing better to do than to keep guessing what bloggers would write in the future and trying to bring them down.

Anyways, their article about “how Indian attitude towards its bigger neighbor is hardening” was a usual cut-and-paste job. Five examples of Indian assertiveness against China in 2010 had been shabbily slapped together to prove the case. After reading the article, only two questions came to my mind: What are they smoking down at The Economist office and can I get some of that? (I know I used that joke once already this month.) The examples put together paint picture of India as a sheep not a tiger. As always, the magazine was terribly wrong about India. You may not believe me, but they do this all the time.

Hey India, get a China Policy already

Since 1962, Indian policy in response to China flexing its muscle has been “see no evil, hear no evil”. Every once in a while, under media pressure, the government may wave around the Tibet card, but mostly all India wants to talk about on the issue of China is economy, factories and environment. As for issues like rising Chinese military power, Chinese support to Pakistan or frequent episodes of China making things awkward for India, there is only silence from New Delhi.

This week, China pulled the stapled visa trick again – this time on a couple of Arunachal Pradesh athletes. Once again, China said that since they do not consider Arunachal a part of India, they can’t recognize the Indian passports that athletes were carrying. Quickly the Indian Ministry of External Affairs swung into action and released a press briefing saying, “We have seen media reports on issuance of stapled visas...We have unequivocally conveyed to the Chinese side that a uniform practice on issuance of visas to Indian nationals must be followed.”  Yeah, because that has China trembling like a leaf.

So we won the UNSC seat, now what?

I imagine the Indian Ministry of External Affairs will be celebrating tonight, now that after a lot of lobbying they have finally won the non-permanent United Nations Security Council seat. Clearly the government is very happy, since they feel the election as an offset to all the damage that the CWG did to the Rising India rhetoric.

Now what? Obviously, the big thinkers of foreign policy in India Siddharth Varadrajan and C Raja Mohan have already given their take. The non-permanent seat is being seen by many as a sort of audition for India to later become a permanent member. Mr. Varadrajan sternly advises India not to be a US mouthpiece but instead develop its own identity as a "responsible" global power that can take its own decisions. This will raise its reputation in the eyes of rest of the world.

Hmm... I am thinking in very different lines. I would think that we can not possibly get a permanent seat without Uncle Sam's approval. Also, Uncle Sam still has the muscle in the world to do so, even when the rest of the world is not very enthusiastic about it (after all, they got us the NSG approval, albeit with support from some others). Moreover, the American  say-so in the world is waning, or at least the Chinese power is rising and consequently America is growing weaker by comparison. 

And it is not in the Chinese interest to give India a permanent seat. Since there is a lot of overlap in Indian and Chinese interests, why would Beijing want a potentially dissenting voice with veto power? And for precisely the same reason, the US has an interest in getting India the permanent membership because it will somewhat check the influence of China.

So, India has a very short time period before the window closes, that is US gets China as an equal contender in world dominance. After that it will be difficult for the US to take a big step like this without the Chinese approval or at least neutrality. Hence, may be we should take a gamble and become American protege for a little while and get them to sponsor our permanent stay in UNSC. Once we have the permanent lease, then  we can do whatever we want. Meanwhile, who cares what Mauritius or Zanzibar thinks?

Of course, this is just an idea - option in bureaucratic lingo; thank god I am not running the country.

Image: UNSC Chamber in New York
Image Credit: Patrick Gruban

Mozambique: Another theater for India-China trade war

I will preface by saying that I might be wrong on this, but seems to me that India is gearing up to protect its economic position in Mozambique as China tries to big-foot its smaller neighbor out of the African continent. A couple of days ago, India extended a credit line of US$ 500 million to Mozambique while Mozambican President was visiting New Delhi. Considering that until last week, the total amount of money extended through previous six lines of credit was only US$ 140 million (source: MEA), this figure is considerable jump. Why is it so?

It seems that India and China both are vying the extensive coal deposits in Mozambique. In the past India, along with Australia, has dominated the Mozambican coal reserves. TATA Steel and SAIL, both have extensive interests in the country. Traditionally, China has shown little interest in Mozambican coal and gas reserves, only importing agricultural products and fisheries from the country. Although the trade relations is on the meteoritic rise, China has restricted itself to importing food and selling machinery. That is, until three months ago. In June, 2010, Chinese steel companies announced their plans of entering Mozambique and investing billions of dollars in developing the coal fields in the country.

Obviously, the Chinese entry into Mozambican coal business is likely to prove a tough competition to the Indian steel companies just like the Indian oil companies have been outbid across the globe by the Chinese. In a reactionary strike not to lose dominance in another African country in race to get raw materials, India seems to have replied with doling out money to the Mozambican government.

Of course, India cannot match China in the amount of aid given. What it can match the Chinese is in how the aid is given. The Chinese are infamous in Africa for not allowing technology transfers and training to the Africans. India can win some favors in the African markets by treating them better than the Chinese in this respect.