Afghan President Hamid Karzai has opened up talks with Taliban to reach a peaceful solution to a twenty-year long war. In the last twenty-four hours, both White House and Mullah Omar have given the talk thumbs-up further strengthening its chances to succeed. And of course, this has sent Indian security circuit to a frenzy of worries.
New Delhi is worried about losing out in its competition with Pakistan to control Afghanistan, once again. If the talks succeed (which is in no way guaranteed) Taliban is likely to get a significant share of power in Kabul. US, with a President already looking a way out of Afghanistan, will be quick to pack its bags, declare victory and go home. And all that will be left in Afghanistan will be a weak and unpopular President, a legitimized Taliban and their friends the ISI. Billions of dollars of Indian aid and all that nosing around of R&AW agents around Kabul for the last ten years will go down the drain.
For the past twenty years India and Pakistan have been competing over the dominance over Afghanistan. While the Pakistani Army considers Afghanistan critical to gain "Strategic Depth" in a war with India, New Delhi feels it has to deny ISI eastern Afghan region as base to train and equip terrorists.
After the fall of communist regime in Kabul in 1992, India and Pakistan backed different war lords to run the country. While India gave millions of dollars in aid to the Tajik commander Ahmed Shah Massoud, Pakistan supported first the Pashtun leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and then Taliban. Advantage: Pakistan.
After 9/11 and US invasion of Afghanistan, while India claimed a hands-off approach in Afghanistan, it spent billions of dollars in aid and sponsored extensive diplomatic and espionage activity. Meanwhile, Pakistan struggling with its own problems, was kept at bay by the US from meddling directly in the Kabul government. Advantage: India
If Taliban comes back to power as a political party and the US leaves this region of the world, Pakistan is again likely to gain upper hand. However, the question to be asked is, was there any other scenario possible? Was an outcome possible where India did retain its influence in Kabul? I can't think of one.
Image: President Hamid Karzai in discussion with US President Obama
Image Credit: Wikimedia
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