Yesterday’s suicide blast at the Moscow Airport may hit Vladimir Putin’s popularity in an election year. Chechnya can expect old-school collective punishment and heavy-handed violence as Kremlin’s reaction to the attack.
The Moscow Airport Suicide Blast that killed 35 39 38 more than 35 people and injured more than 100 has shaken Russian Premier Vladimir Putin’s popularity. The Russian Government, which is supposed to be tough and strong and in the business of “dragging terrorists out from sewers”, failed to stop second major attack in Moscow within a year. While, Putin was able to coast along after the Moscow Subway Bombing in March 2010, he may have to do some political damage control this time; damage control that may involve air bombings and massive roundups.
While no one has taken responsibility of the attack as of now, the usual suspects for it are Chechen rebels who have been responsible for all the major terror attacks within Russia for the last decade. Barring the unlikely possibility that an entirely disconnected group takes responsibility for the attack, Chechnya, which has seen a two-decade-long war of independence against the Russian Federation, is likely to be held responsible.
This will create political problems for Putin who is supposed to be tough on terror. Over the last ten years, the ex-KGB officer has cultivated an image of no-nonsense street fighter who gets the job done. And a major security failure like the one that happened yesterday, is going to tarnish that image. The three legs to the cult of Putin, “the most popular leader in the world” have been economic boom, security and international position of the country. With the decline of oil prices and the Global Economic Meltdown of 2008-09 that hit Russia the hardest, Putin’s popularity has already plummeted with an approval rating of mid-60 figure (which is bad for a guy that usually enjoys figures somewhere in 80-88%). So the security leg is crucial for Putin to win the 2012 elections hands down.
However, security breaches like these are not helping. After the last major terror attack in Moscow in March 2010, Putin was able to come out unscathed because of his cultivated image of “good leader surrounded by bad bureaucrats.” However, it is a political trick that only works once.
Therefore, Kremlin will be facing a lot of political pressure this year to show Russia that it is hard on terrorism. A very likely outcome of such pressure can be return to the old-school crackdown on Chechnya.
It should be remembered that Putin’s arrival to power in 2000 was largely because of his handling of the Second Chechen War in 1999-2000 which left Grozny, the Chechen capital, “most destroyed city on earth.” In 2002, when the Chechen rebels took over a Moscow theatre, Putin decision to gas the theatre killing 130 hostages earned him 83% approval rating. What these and many more incidents have taught the Russian de-facto czar is that crushing rebellion with a lot of collateral damage is not only acceptable to Russian people but in fact appreciated. Using the same logic, one can expect Putin’s revenge to the bombings appearing in the form of military and FSB operations within Chechnya and heavy-handed roundups of Chechens in Moscow.
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