While the Egyptian protests enter third day, many are expecting country’s 29-year-old dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak to fall. However, it will finally be Military’s decision to let regime fall or not.
As of this morning, both Twitter and Facebook have gone offline in the country, although protesters still continue to find proxies to spread their message and anger. One of the protesters, supposedly a member of the security forces at the Presidential Palace, tweeted this morning, “From presidential palace: I hope to see Mubarak go. He is a mafia leader. I don't like that I am protecting a tyrant” and “just saw Mubarak in hallway... frail and like about to collapse.”
Iconic Imagery from the protests:
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Within a month, another Arab country has come under widespread political unrest following the Tunisian model of popular protests. While half-hearted attempts of protests against the corrupt and oppressive Egyptian regime had been going on since the successful Tunisian Revolution earlier this month, massive showdown began on 25 January, when the protesters organized themselves on Facebook.
As of this morning, both Twitter and Facebook have gone offline in the country, although protesters still continue to find proxies to spread their message and anger. One of the protesters, supposedly a member of the security forces at the Presidential Palace, tweeted this morning, “From presidential palace: I hope to see Mubarak go. He is a mafia leader. I don't like that I am protecting a tyrant” and “just saw Mubarak in hallway... frail and like about to collapse.”
More than 1000 protesters have been arrested but the disturbance doesn’t seem to be losing steam. Many observers have already predicted the fall of Hosni Mobarak, who has been ruling the country for more than 29 years. The opposition leader and democracy activist, Mohamed ElBaradei is supposed to enter Egypt soon.
However, the key to the success or failure of regime’s survival is going to be the Egyptian Military. The 450,000-strong force, the largest in African continent, has the capacity to shutdown the protest before it spreads any further. While reportedly, the Central Security Forces, Egypt’s ill-trained paramilitary, has been reportedly outmaneuvered by the protesters, the military will be a whole different ball game. For Tunisian, the success was possible only after the Tunisian Military refused to fire on the protesters. Yet, Egyptian Military has remained suspiciously silent about the whole affair until now.
The context to this silence may be the upcoming Presidential Elections in which 83-year-old Mubarak was hoping to install his son Gamal, as his successor. Recent Wikileaked diplomatic cables from Cairo US embassy suggest that the Egyptian Military was not amenable to the idea of Gamal, who has never served in the military, as country’s new president.
The current protests have significantly changed the dynamics of the whole political situation, forcing the military to take a decision- whether to go with Mubarak or the protesters. It is likely that the military will choose the side which offers it the best deal. For protesters, this might be a problem given the lack of leadership. The most popular leader that the protesters have to offer is ElBaradei, who hasn’t lived in Egypt for many years and is more or less an outsider to the politics.
Moreover, unlike the Tunisian Revolution, about which most countries had chosen to stay silent, Mubarak is already seeing some lukewarm support from the US and Israel. It is another factor playing in his favor.
Nevertheless, even if Mubarak succeeds to hold on to his regime, he may be forced to open up the country and pave way for democratic reforms. Interesting times ahead.
Iconic Imagery from the protests:
You can follow DoT on Twitter @DoT_Sandeep or Facebook facebook.com/dreamsofatypewriter
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