Egypt Protests: No democracy for Egypt in 2011, I am betting money on it

It’s official. I am willing to bet INR 5000/ US$ 100/ GBP 70 on the fact that Egypt shall not see democracy for any foreseeable future, despite eighteen days of spectacular struggle by the Egyptian people and the general euphoria that has taken over the world. You can post the name of your favorite charity on this blog’s Facebook page and if within the next eight months (i.e. 15 September 2011) free and fair elections (by international standards) are held in Egypt, I will donate the said amount of money to one of these charities. Some people may consider this bet to be in poor taste but I believe that certain amount of cynicism is exactly what is needed to be infused in the current narrative of the Egypt Protests.

A good Mubarak joke

Joshua Keating’s blog at Foreign Policy had following joke on Mubarak:

Mubarak dies and meets Nasser and Sadat in the afterlife. They ask him, "Poison or parade?" (Conspiracy theorists allege Nasser was poisoned; Sadat was assassinated during a military parade.)

Mubarak shrugs and answers: "Facebook."

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Egypt: Did Mubarak's camel cavalry just charged the protesters?

As of a few minutes ago, it seems that a few men, riding on horses and camels(!) just charged the protesters on Tahrir Square, the focal point of ongoing Egypt Protests. Little is clear as of now, but reportedly about a hundred men and women have been injured in the ensuing stampede. If you are not doing it already, get the live update from Al Jazeera Live feed.

Until today, the protests, which are now involving millions of people, have been largely peaceful, to the extent that the protesters even organized a football match yesterday. But all that changed today when thousands of pro-Mubarak supporters (read: paid goons) started clashing with the protesters. As of now, the causalities are undetermined. Seems like the regime is getting desperate.

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Egypt Protests: Where did Mubarak go wrong?

What did Mubarak do to lose his 29-year-old regime? Answer: he blinked first. Firing his cabinet on 28 January became the precipitating factor in his power’s demise.

Imagine if you are a dictator of a large Middle Eastern country. You have been ruling the place for about three decades and as it turns out, you are pretty good at it. You kept too much political dissidence at bay; survived six assassinations attempts; made a lot of money; kept the army happy; made friends with almost everyone in the world, including US, Israel, Libya and Saudi Arabia; made your son a viable candidate for succession. And then, all of a sudden, it’s all on the verge of disappearing because some Tunisian fruit vendor, who no one had ever heard of, decided to burn himself. At this point in your life, you have to wonder what went wrong.

Protests in Egypt: Military will be the key for Mubarak’s survival

While the Egyptian protests enter third day, many are expecting country’s 29-year-old dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak to fall. However, it will finally be Military’s decision to let regime fall or not.

Within a month, another Arab country has come under widespread political unrest following the Tunisian model of popular protests. While half-hearted attempts of protests against the corrupt and oppressive Egyptian regime had been going on since the successful Tunisian Revolution earlier this month, massive showdown began on 25 January, when the protesters organized themselves on Facebook.