Egypt Protests: No democracy for Egypt in 2011, I am betting money on it

It’s official. I am willing to bet INR 5000/ US$ 100/ GBP 70 on the fact that Egypt shall not see democracy for any foreseeable future, despite eighteen days of spectacular struggle by the Egyptian people and the general euphoria that has taken over the world. You can post the name of your favorite charity on this blog’s Facebook page and if within the next eight months (i.e. 15 September 2011) free and fair elections (by international standards) are held in Egypt, I will donate the said amount of money to one of these charities. Some people may consider this bet to be in poor taste but I believe that certain amount of cynicism is exactly what is needed to be infused in the current narrative of the Egypt Protests.

Since my last post claiming that democracy in Egypt is unlikely, I have received a significant amount of criticism from all quarters. Apparently everyone is convinced that with Mubarak’s ouster, the road to democracy is more or less guaranteed. I beg to differ.

And yes, I am aware that the first lesson taught to any geopolitics analyst is to always cover his back by never being too definitive in his predictions or analysis. But the hopeless optimism that has seized the analyst community and international media on this issue is simply too much. Democracy in Egypt will be a miracle, not a foregone conclusion.

There was a reason why Allied Forces occupied Germany after the Second World War despite their unwillingness to run the country (at least on the part of the western democracies). There is a reason why after four years of peace Nepalese Maoists still maintain a 19,000-strong army to challenge the state. And there is a reason why despite hundreds of peace treaties, confidence building measures, United Nations and other international forums for dispute resolution, the world spends more than US$ 1.5 trillion every year on maintaining armies. The reason is leverage.

Promises and agreements in global politics are based on the fact that the two parties involved can make sure that they are followed by posing credible threats on each other. There is no World Government to ensure that the governments live up to their words and indeed there is a long list of treaty violations in every government’s account including United States, Great Britain and China.

Same applies for the situation in Egypt. The Army may have promised to bring democracy but there is no one on the other side of the table to ensure that they follow through with their promise. The two and only two mechanisms to bring pressure upon the military regime – popular protests and international opinion – are disintegrating as we speak. Protests, which had come about in an ad hoc manner, creating a very rare configuration of mass psychology, are unlikely to repeat themselves. There is simply no way that thousands will leave their jobs and personal lives once again, a month from now, to return to protesting in Tahrir Square.

As for the international sentiment, which had been fuelled by 24/7 media coverage of the event, it is already moving on, just like the headlines. Please note that while the protests began on 25 January, until 28 or 29 January, no one in the world had paid much attention. The interest began to generate only after Al Jazeera stopped talking about everything else but Egypt. BBC World, which has been facing stiff competition from the Qatar-based news network for some time now, followed suit. Soon news network in the world was chasing the story, not willing to end up the last one on the scene. With the media attention gone (it already seems waning) there will be no international sentiment. Remember, about 1.9 billion people on this planet are living under some sort of dictatorship and no one in the world is lifting a finger to help them.

And with no public attention, governments like that of United States and Europe will remove democracy in Egypt from their agenda. After all, the military has been so compliant in keeping the international peace and accommodating Israel in the Middle East. Who wants to jeopardize that with a free and fair democratic election? The pro-Israel lobby, which is decidedly against any changes to the status quo, will undoubtedly play a critical role in shaping Washington foreign policy on Egypt in coming months. Its influence could be seen already as US dragged its feet to come out openly in support of the protesters in the first place.

With these two factors removed, there is little that anyone can do to force the Military to give up their power. A long unbroken chain of dictators has ensured that Egypt has no strong unions, political parties with no popular support, lack of alternative leadership and a legal system that supports autocratic rule. It would simply a miracle if democracy comes to visit the land of the Pharaohs.

A significant aspect of the whole drama to be noted is that all the moves government made to appease public were in increments- firing of the cabinet, the new Vice President, Gamal’s resignation from the party, the promise not to run in elections again, and finally Mubarak’s removal. What all these increments were meant to do was to gauge at what level the public will be satisfied. But they were not signs of the regime conceding outright defeat. What this tells us is that the government (read the military) was and is still convinced that these protests were not the demise of the way the country was used to run but merely nuisance that had to be pacified with some concessions. Now that they believed that the nuisance has indeed been pacified with Mubarak’s farewell, the country can go back to the way things were.

With all this said, I stand by my analysis and conviction that the Egyptian Military will not let the country have free and fair elections anytime soon. If you disagree, send across the name of your favorite charity here.

PS: Four different people have pointed out to me the Stratfor Article arguing a very similar pessimism, written a couple of days after my post. Thanks to George Friedman for agreeing with me.

Infographic for all you need to know about Arab World Protests
Where did Mubarak go wrong?
Who is Mohamed ElBaradei?
A Somber Note on Egypt Protests
Vodafone suspends service in Egypt in an attempt to shutdown the protests

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