Thank you Ayadhya, CWG. I can finally breathe!

After a whole month of being stuck in traffic jams, waiting for hours for tables at restaurants and getting crushed in giant man-breasts of fellow passengers of the overcrowded Metro (I am Jack's claustrophobia) I can finally breathe! 

For the last the last week roads are empty in central Delhi, you can park wherever you want in Connaught Place and Metro looks like a Disneyland ride. And it all because of Bharat Sarkar's paranoia. Faced with a problem of any kind, trust the Indian Government to apply its default setting response- a lot of men with with a lot of guns. Faced with two major challenges in one week, the government has gone into an overdrive of paranoid schizophrenia turning entire New Delhi into one giant airport terminal where strip search is mandatory. 

Thanks to their efforts, Central Delhi has overnight become this incredibly peaceful town of a couple of thousands where you can see the blue sky and see the birds chirping. As M J Akbar has suggested enjoy an empty Delhi while it lasts, just stay away from the Commonwealth Games or any Hindu organization offices.

Image: Babri Mosque, Ayodhya
Image Credit: Wikimedia

Can we please take a page from Iceland

Yesterday, Iceland's former Prime Minister Geir Haarde became the first world leader to be charged in connection of the Global Economic Crisis. What is fascinating about the whole episode is the fact that he was not charged with corruption but with criminal negligence! That's right. He will be tried in a criminal (as against to a civil) court for failing to provide good governance. If he is convicted he can face two years of jail.

Can we also take a page from Iceland and try our leaders for criminal negligence? I am sure a large part of the government will be in jail for the CWG fiasco. The best part is you don't even have to prove that the government officials have taken bribe only that they were negligent of their duties. I am sure our constitution can be interpreted in a certain way to find the legality. 

The only pitfall that I can imagine for such a practice will be that elections may often lead the new government to lock up the old government in jail leading a vicious cycle. However, there will also be a certain level of responsibility that we can expect from the politicians. After all, as of now we have absolutely no way of punishing them except for removing them from power. This leaves very little incentive for a leader to do good if he can just fill up his pockets in five years and then retire. 

Update: Kashmir Reconciliation Package

After putting up the Kashmir post, I asked Suba Chandran of Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (and my former boss) to give me some feedback on the reconciliation package. Always one step ahead, he has already written a detailed paper on the issue, which covers far beyond what I had talked about.

The main point to take home from his paper is the idea that the current policy that New Delhi has on Kashmir is to have no policy. "[T]he calculation today in New Delhi is, perhaps, that this round of violence will also subside. So sit tight. Do Nothing. Violence will go down automatically." Although the vagueness of the reconciliation package may be due to the fact that it is a skeleton structure for future development, it may very well be motivated by the policy of no policy.

Chandran argues that such attitude towards Kashmir will be harmful in the long run. Instead he gives a brief plan of creating consensus in India and Kashmir reach an effective solution to this problem.

What is the government's reconciliation package to Kashmir?

I am confused. On Saturday, the government announced a eight-point reconciliation package for Kashmir to pacify the protests (for the Ministry of Home Affairs Press Release see this). For the past couple of days, I was hoping some expert on Kashmir will give his opinions in some newspaper or the other about the package, but nothing substantial has turned up. And the package seems to give nothing special to the Kashmiris. I am confused as to if the package is actually a political settlement (even a minor one) or not.

The package gives Kashmir the following:

- Review deployment of the security forces (that is moving check posts, de-scaling bunkers etc. from some parts of Kashmir).

- Setting up a group of interlocutors to hold talks with political parties, youth and members of the civil society.

- The state government will review the notification of places in the Valley as disturbed areas, "a decision that could impact the contentious Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), dilution or total withdrawal of which parts of the Valley is a longstanding demand of separatists and even of Omar Abdullah," says Deccan Herald.

- State government to withdraw charges against the students detained in the protests since June this year.

- Lifting of the curfew that has been in place for the last three months.

Now, the last two points just turn the clock back for a few months and revert to the status quo. Setting up a group to hold talks is not exactly confidence-inducing given the track record of the Indian Government. The significant points of the package are review of the deployment and possible dilution of Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). The review of deployment will be in consultation with the Unified Command. I can't imagine that in a committee dominated by Army and Paramilitary forces there will be many changes in the deployment structure. If history is any measure to go by, generals are always reluctant to give up any ground, considering all their deployments as indispensable.

The only significant aspect that remains is the review of "disturbed areas". According to AFSPA, which is one of the most draconian laws our government has ever passed, in a region declared as "disturbed area" armed forces have extraordinary powers. The right to declare an area disturbed lies with the central government and the state governor, however the central government can always overrule the state. The package allows state government to review these disturbed areas and recommend central government to change some of them. It seems unlikely that entire Kashmir will be declassified as a "disturbed area." If the government only removes the label from a few small parts of the state, would that make a major difference?

So is this reconciliation package just eyewash, reversion to the old status quo? As I said, I am confused.

PS: An idea that I really liked was setting up a Truth and Reconciliation Commission suggested by Prof Amitabh Mattoo. As he says, "A commission like this is not about fixing blame, but about accepting the tragic events of the past, bringing the past to a closure and moving together into a better future. It is about recognising the tragedy of two decades, of those who disappeared or who were killed, or the tragic displacement of Kashmiri Pandits."

Please steer clear of involving Army in CWG construction

The unfortunate Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium bridge that collapsed last week injuring 27 people is being reconstructed by the Indian Army. Now that the jawaans are involved, there is a little doubt that the project will be completed in time. However, this state of affairs does raise the bigger question as to why the civilian authorities are so far behind in comparison to the military in simple things like construction and event management. 

India has had a long tradition of calling on its military to take care of tasks, far removed from security, in times of emergency; tasks like disaster management and mitigation, which are understandable, but also like environmental clean-up, tree plantations and now foot overbridge construction. Although Indian Army is alway able to deliver, despite the absurdity of these tasks for an organization geared towards security, it can hardly claim superiority to civilian authorities in terms of experience or expertise. As far as civilian tasks are concerned, army's strength lies only in leadership and organization skills. Yet the civilian government often turns hat in hand towards the army to do what the civilians cannot.  

What I am trying to say is that the decision to give army the task of completing the bridge is not in any way catastrophic, but it does have a symbolic impact. There is a reason why the civilian and military authority has been delineated and civil organizations conceding inferiority in domains where they should be, by all rights, superior to the army is not correct (admittedly little has gone right at all in the Commonwealth Games preparations). 

Fortunately, the Indian Army has never shown an inkling towards replacing the civilian control; however, history of the world and especially South Asia serves a stern reminder that it doesn't take long for the circumstances to change. The Indian Military Officer Corps should have faith in the civilian machinery to be capable to run the country. More often than not, the driving force behind military control in a country has been lack of faith in the civil government rather than greed of the generals.

Note: Now that I have written it, I am thinking that this idea is too far out there. Yet, at the same time, I think it shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. 

Image: Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium, New Delhi

Image Credit: seaview99

Operation Dragon Strike: US troops launch a massive offensive in Kandahar

Last week, US and other International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) launched one of the biggest offensives of the Afghanistan War - Operation Dragon Strike - to retake the district of Kandahar, the birthplace of Taliban (video). With more than 8000 troops, including 101st Airborne (my favorite division in the American Military) the forces are trying to clear out Taliban stronghold from Kandahar.

What this mission highlights is the fact that nine years into the war, US forces are still not in control of the second-largest city in Afghanistan. It should be realized that since 1994 Kandahar has been the life source for Taliban. Moreover, because of this weak point in the ISAF control of the country, the Afghan government has been unable to secure the Kabul-Kandahar Highway, the most critical transportation link in this war-torn nation. Until few months ago only a Canadian force of 3000 was operating in the city, which could hardly control Taliban influence from the region. 

To top it all off, the mission is turning into a classic military failure, although it will be hailed as a victory. Taliban, warned of this operation months in advance through Pentagon press department, have apparently already left the area. The ISAF troops, meeting no resistance, are likely to hail the mission as a victory and Kandahar cleared of the Taliban. However, they will fail to destroy the enemy forces, which is a much more important objective in counter-insurgency than acquiring territory. Additionally, if the past record is any measure, once successful, the US troops will leave the city to be policed by a small force. Then there is little doubt that the Taliban will soon return.

Image Credit: isafmedia

Mathematics says Indian Food Security Policy is completely wrong

Well, it has been mathematically proven that the Indian Government is wrong. In his recent paper The Economics of Foodgrain Management In India, Kaushik Basu, India's Chief Economic Adviser, no less, has proven how the food security policy of the country is economically impossible!

Although this blog is not about food security, this is too sweet an opportunity to miss. Using economics and basic game theory, Basu has criticized the Indian food security policy in an extremely subtle but convincing manner and then got the Ministry of Finance to put the paper up on their own website. His most critical finding is that the current policy that the government follows is in fact leading to higher food prices in the country than if the government was not involved at all.

What Basu has proved is that to maintain low food prices as well as make food accessible to the poor at all times, following steps are necessary:

1. The government has to maintain food reserves. Privatizing the entire process will not help.

2. Instead of what is done today, the government policy should be to hoard when the weather is good and release when the weather is bad. Keeping food reserves at all time does not help anyone.

3. The government has to sell its food reserves at a lower price than what they had bought it at. As of now, when the government releases food, it is at the buying price plus transportation and storage charges. The food thus put in market is more expensive than what the market has to offer itself!

4. The food has to be released in small batches instead of a large bundle. The smaller the batches, the lower the price will be.

5. Instead of opening subsidized shops, introduce coupons for the poor to buy the food from any shop at the market price.

Image Credit: chmoss

Israel-Palestine resolution is the key to Al Qaeda and Iran: King of Jordan

A couple of days ago the King of Jordan, Abdullah II came on Jon Stewart's The Daily Show and talked about the Israel-Palestine issue. Coming from a world region full of extremist and/or crazy dictators and monarchs, the king was surprisingly moderate, rational and convincing in putting forth his ideas. He talked about how the Israel-Palestine issue, which affects every Muslim nation in the world, has allowed Iran and Al Qaeda to gain an international platform using such agenda. With the issue gone, these extremists will become a localized threat and can be accordingly dealt with.

Now Wikipedia tells me that the king is not only sensible but also an effective ruler. His reign has seen the first FTA (Free Trade Agreement) that the US has signed with any Arab country and his social welfare policy is not bad at all. To top it all off, the king is a fan of Star Trek and has played role as an extra in an episode in Star Trek: Voyager. How cool is that?

Image: King Abdullah II as an extra on Star Trek: Voyager 1996
Image credit: Wikimedia

Fear them not

Probably the most insightful aspect of the mysterious Jama Masjid attacks (19 September 2010) is actions of 26-year-old Salim Ahmed, the rickshaw-wala who started throwing stones at the two attackers. While the confusion over why or what the Sunday shoot-out was, one thing that struck me was the immediate reaction of Ahmed, and to be fair, the constable present at the scene. Their actions foiled the attack and saved lives. Put this in contrast to the massive panic that ensued after Mumbai Terror Attacks of 2008.
I hope what happened at Jama Masjid on Sunday is not a one-time event but sign of changing attitude of the Indian public. The only true way to counter terror is not through putting a cop with a Kalashnikov at every corner, listening to all the phone calls ever made and arresting everyone we don’t like (which are only stop-gap solutions) but to refuse to be terrorized. Terrorism, like crime, is something we may very well have to live with. The threat of terrorism can never be removed, only lessened.
In general terrorist acts are followed panic and anger by the victims –Indian society and government. In anger we overreact, lash out on innocents, only strengthening extremist’s hand. In panic, we accede to their demands and give into injustice.
The overreaction to terror attacks in India can be often seen in the aftermath when the police rounds up scores of Muslims for “questioning” or shutting down entire cities of Kashmir and Northeast. Moreover, the call for blood by the public can lead to terrible consequences, as was evident in the post-Mumbai Terror Attacks India when the entire nation was up in arms asking for war against Pakistan.
The panic can be seen when the people into terrorists’ demands. Recent studies  have shown that terrorism often pays off for the extremist groups and is therefore employed. For instance, the foremost demand of Al Qaida after 9/11 was the removal of US troops from Saudi Arabia and believe it or not, today there are no US troops in Saudi Arabia.
Hopefully, now the Indian society is learning not to be completely paralyzed by fear or lash out too strongly but to deal with terrorism rationally.

Image: Jama Masjid  Image Credit:Wikimedia

Problems with the law?How about printing your own constitution

In a hilarious attempt to survive the expiration of his tenure, the
Nicaraguan President has come up with an out-of-the-box solution-
printing his own version of the constitution. The Christian Science Monitor reports how the government printed new copies of the constitution with its own edits to overcome the constitutional limit to their tenure.In recent years, many presidents have found solutions to the constitutional limit to their tenure including Russian President Vladimir Putin  and Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa  . But the Nicraguan way is definitely the funniest.
Image: A historical Time magazine cover featuring Daniel Ortega. Credit: Google Images 

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