Egypt Protests: Who is Mohamed ElBaradei?

The relentless Egypt Protests have created a very real possibility of the Hosni Mubarak’s 29-year-old regimes’ departure and possibility of Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei. But can this former nuclear inspector be anything more than a very efficient bureaucrat?

As the Egypt Protests have shown absolutely no sign of waning off, Mubarak’s presidency has been shaken to its core. With Egyptian Military sitting on the fence, choosing not to go outright to Mubarak’s defence, the regime’s fate has more or less been sealed (as pointed out by this blog when the whole drama began). Enter Mohamed ElBaradei. Over the last few days ElBaradei has emerged as the symbol of hope and democracy in the country and is likely candidate to succeed Mubarak. However, doubts to his leadership qualities remain.

ElBaradei, while born and brought up in Egypt, has been living in Europe since 1980, first as a professor of New York University and later working with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In 1997, he was appointed as the IAEA Director General, a position that he will hold till 2009. During his tenure, he became focal point of controversy for opposing American propaganda about Iraq’s WMD. He was opposed to the Iraq War and later to idea of using force to shutdown Iran’s nuclear program. He has also been vocal about double-standards of the West over nuclear weapons and especially, Israel’s not-so-secret nukes. For his efforts for arms control, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005 jointly with IAEA.

Nevertheless, while it is undoubted that ElBaradei is an excellent bureaucrat and a fearless one at that, can he run a country in these troubled times? For all practical purposes he is an outsider to Egyptian political scene. (Unfortunately, for a country under continued dictatorship for 29 years, popular leaderships that grow organically tend to be simply impossible.) He has never lived in the country for long and seems hardly well-versed in Real Politick. Technically, under the current constitution, he is not even eligible to run for President, since he hasn’t led a major political party for more than one year.

Yet, he has been a symbol for a democratic Egypt since the last year. Since April 2010, when he returned to his country after quitting his IAEA job, he was greeted by crowds and treated as a potential contender for the upcoming elections in Egypt. Many observers had dubbed him as the only viable candidate to run against Mubarak or his son Gamal in the upcoming elections of 2011.

However, ElBaradei has been incapable of capitalizing whatever goodwill he has in country. Even during the parliamentary elections of 2010, most political parties and people chose to ignore his call to boycott the elections that he considered a fraud. He has hardly been able to develop grass-root support or a political organization of any sorts.

Moreover, it remains to be seen, how good he is with dealing with the military, the largest one in Africa, which would require some level of appeasement. His relations with US and Israel, which have been antagonistic until now, are question marks that would have to be resolved quickly. Mubarak, for all his failings, had been able to maintain amicable relations Israel, significantly lowering the threat factor in the region.

Finally, I am a firm believer that any long-term leadership, especially the one that emerges out of turmoil, requires that certain charisma that only a few have. Now I don’t pretend to speak Arabic, but anyone can see in the videos below, how Mubarak displays such leadership charisma, while ElBaradei comes off as dull and disappointing:

You can follow DoT on Twitter @DoT_Sandeep or Facebook facebook.com/dreamsofatypewriter