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Why not to go the Chinese way on the Arundhati Roy issue

The recent statements by Syed Ali Shah Geelani, leader of separatist Kashmiri group Hurriyat and author Arundhati Roy about Kashmiri independence have raised a political storm in New Delhi. Several political parties and members of media have called out for arrests of these leaders on the charges of treason. Consequently there continues a constitutional debate in the country for the legality of their arrests.

Although the Delhi Police has been given a go-ahead to file charges against the leaders, it remains to be seen whether the arrests will actually be carried out. The government continues to refuse from committing itself to either side. While there is strong sentiments in New Delhi to appease, arrest of Geelani may lead to revived political protests in Kashmir and arrest of Roy may invite international criticism.

An interesting parallel is the recent drama that went on in China about Liu Xiabo who is the Nobel Peace Prize winner this year and currently under house-arrest in China. Immediately after the announcement of the prize, the Chinese led a major crackdown on internet erasing the news, arranged for a political hit-job on his character and rebuked Nobel prize committee for daring to give him the prize.

These are the reasons why we should not adopt the same model here at home:

1. International criticism not cool for a country trying to spit polish its Democracy medallions in a region full of dictatorships and communism.

2. Something called free speech as a constitutional right.

3. The fact that such statements from time-to-time are important to be made. Our government, like any other government, is not very effective in taking initiatives. It is only by forcing the government, by making big hue and cry that you can force any government to bring in reforms and I hope no one will disagree that we need reforms in Kashmir. I do not agree with Roy but I disagree with her arrest as well.

Someone just pointed out that I should be last person to cry free speech since I am in everyone's face who doesn't agree with me. But I do it for free, as an individual. The government is also free to do so, by bashing Roy through public statements. But arresting her would be crossing a line that I am really hoping we would not.

Again, I am saying Roy is an idiot who made an incorrect statement and she probably has no idea about the real situation in Kashmir. But that doesn't mean you should arrest her.

Image: Arundhati Roy, Liu Xiabo

Image credit: Jeanbaptisteparis, Voice of America

Do we know anything about the two future bosses of the world?

So, the Chinese politburo has chosen its next leader. And we know nothing about him. Xi Jinping at 57 has been announced (in characteristically sneaky way) as the leader of China to succeed Hu Jintao in 2012. This man is going to be the emperor of China, and the way China is going, one of the two most powerful people in the world, along with the American President. Immediately after the announcement Time Magazine, The Economist, Foreign Policy and all the other major new organizations in the world quickly published his profile. And they all had the same thing to say - we know nothing about this guy. 

All we know about this enigmatic personality is that he oversaw the Olympics preparation in Beijing, at one time used to run Shanghai, has married a very popular Chinese singer and is son of a communist who was denounced during the Chinese Cultural Revolution of 1966. That's it. That's all we know about the man who in two years time might be in charge of the biggest economic and military powerhouse in the world! Lovely.

On the other hand, we may not know anything about the Yin to this Yang as well - the American President of 2012. From what is now becoming apparent, Obama is not going to survive till the next term. And the Democrats don't seem to have anyone better. So most likely the Republicans are coming back into White House in the 2012 Presidential Elections. According to the current polls, two favorites of Republicans are Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney. I feel that Romney is a little faint-hearted, always worrying about what if he loses. Therefore, it is likely that he might drop out of the election race if he feels that he can not win even before the campaigning. Palin on the other hand, is gonna run and gonna run big. Moreover, the new Tea Party movement has garnered her a lot of support and she might actually end up running the United States.

Now with Sarah Palin the problem is not what we know about her - we know way too much with her family popping up on TV all the time - but what she knows about herself. She is a blank slate. So what she will do once she is the President is anyone's guess including her own. 

This is the scary situation. We do not know anything about the two most powerful people our world may have in 2012. May be the Mayans were right.

Images: Xi Jinping, Sarah Palin

Image Credit: Time Magazine, Shank bone

A romance called US-Pak relationship

As mentioned before, Monday Backgrounder is a weekly feature of Dreams of a Typewriter (DoT) that lays out the basic history of a current issue. With Americans giving away US$ 2 billion, it seems appropriate to chalk out the recent history of US and Pakistan.

The passionate romance of United States and Pakistan began in the end of 1970s with Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan. It was followed by ten-year-long love-making involving guns, rocket launchers and billions of dollars. It was only after the fall Soviet Union in 1989 that Pakistan realized that America was just using it to make USSR jealous. For the next twelve years US didn’t call or write, while Islamabad seethed as a rejected lover. After 9/11 US came knocking at Pakistan’s door. Although the forgotten mistress let US in, its vengeance was not yet satisfied. It continued to milk US for it was worth while continuing to conspire domestic plots with its new “friends” (Taliban). Now the relationship has evolved into something no one understands but the US and Pakistan continue to stay together in a sham of a marriage while both try to cheat on each other. 

This in short is the complex relationship between US and Pakistan, with orphan child Afghanistan in between. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the US saw an opportunity to bleed their mighty foe by giving guns, money and training to the Afghan insurgents. In this they found Pakistan as a perfect ally. Pakistan – brimming with hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees – offered to train and equip the insurgents that would fight the evil communism. The US was only too happy to let Pakistan do the dirty work while just pumping money and guns. Of course, not all the money ended up with the insurgents but that’s beside the point.

In 1989 Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan and soon it was on the verge of collapse. Americans hailed victory and within year forgot all about Afghanistan and the money that was being pumped into Pakistan. The civil war in Afghanistan waged on and Pakistan (now with much lesser funds) continued to play its politics to find a winner of its liking (see a previous post on this). In 1994, it found its protégé in Taliban. They were ruthless, of the correct ethnic and religious attitude and most importantly knew how to win. Meanwhile Washington, although disinterested in South Asia, worried over the growing Islamization of Pakistani Army. CIA would do a beard count in the annual passing out parade of Pakistani Army. Too many beards in accordance to Islam meant trouble.

After 1998, Clinton administration continued to pressurize Pakistan about the nuclear weapons (Bin Laden was a minor issue in the relationship) and their security and not to get in trouble with India. Reportedly, Clinton was really mad about Pakistan’s Kargil operation. However, the relationship remained lukewarm.

After 9/11 when the Americans decided to blow up Afghanistan, they called Musharraf and told him to either help the US or be prepared to be invaded. Musharraf obliged. But the Pakistan army refused to leave its old friends (Taliban and other insurgents) in lurch. One, these guys helped Pakistan recruit and train the terrorists for Kashmir and second, they were likely to remain there while the US can decide to leave at any moment. Predictably, US did leave (at least mentally) in 2003 to attack Iraq. When they came back, they found that the insurgency had spread to the western regions of Pakistan, ISI continued to help out Taliban (see a previous post for more) meanwhile the Pakistani Army was facing the wrong direction looking at India. US again started pressurizing Pakistan for cutting help to Taliban (which is done unofficially) and fight some insurgents in its own backyards which were helping out their Afghan counterparts. 

Unfortunately, US fails to develop a stick for Pakistan. All it has is carrots. Pakistan, constantly worried that US might just up and leave again leaving Pakistan with an angry Taliban on one side and a hostile India on the other, eats up the carrot but refuses to do all the bidding that US requests. This is where the situation stands as of now. There is no easy solution to this problem and hence we are in for a long haul in the AfPak region. 

Image Credit: pkpolitics.com, Reuters

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Next strip of Circle of Life is up if anyone cares...Although it is not very funny.

Conversing Security: Pakistan gets US$ 2 billion military aid

Primary purpose of Dreams of a Typewriter (DoT) is to make complex issues of secuirty and foreign policy accessible to common readers. To this end, DoT is introducing yet another weekly feature- Conversing Security. This feature will present the topics of security in the format of informal chat conversation between two friends. Thanks to Tony for suggesting this idea. The names of the two people conversing here have been stolen from my friends without their permission. So shh..

Achal: Yo

Mohit: yo, wassup?

Achal: what is this i hear about US giving Pakistan 2 billion dollars to Pakistan?

Mohit: Yup, it is military aid. Guns and tanks and stuff. US already gives Pakistan roughly 1 billion a year as military aid. This is on top of that

Achal: But I thought US and Pakistan were not so happy with each other after the border issue last week????

Mohit: Yeah. But Americans are trying to appease Pakistan. They think Pakistan is essential for their war in Afghanistan.

Achal: Why?

Mohit: Because they have to send in food, fuel and ammo to their people in Afghanistan. They can’t do it through Iran and they don’t wanna do it through Central Asian countries.

Achal: So Pakistanis get money and guns?

Mohit: Americans also want Pakistan to do some counter-insurgency on its western border in regions like NWFP and FATA because these places are safe haven for the Taliban

Achal: Hmm… so the Pakistanis are supporting Americans

Mohit: Well not exactly. They help Americans in their war but at the same time give shelter and guns and money to the terrorists and insurgents

Achal: ???

Mohit: Pakistanis have to help Americans because they pay the bills. But Pakistan needs to keep insurgents happy to A. train the terrorists for Kashmir and B. maintain influence in Afghanistan if Americans leave tomorrow

Achal: Ok. But the Pakistanis would want to do some counterinsurgency stuff in their own country. I mean terrorists are blowing up things in Pakistan too…

Mohit: It is complicated. Pakistan does not see every terrorist as their enemy. Some are good terrorists like Afghan Taliban and the ones that fight in Kashmir. So they cant just have a counterinsurgency operation. They have to choose their enemies selectively.

Achal: Hmm…so Pakistan wont stop their support of terrorist despite the aid?

Mohit: Looks like it. Also the military can’t send too many forces for counterinsurgency because they have keep their army on the eastern border looking at India, their real threat

Achal: That’s stupid

Mohit: Fear of India is the reason why Pakistani Army is so powerful in the country. Without this fear they will be weakened.

Achal: Why are Americans being so blind?

Mohit: They think they have no other choice. If Pakistan becomes very hostile it will shutoff the supply route to Afghanistan and then Americans are screwed.

Achal: Cant they attack Pakistan?

Mohit: Pakistan has nukes. Anyways the political fallout in the world will be huge.

Achal: So Americans are screwed either way?

Mohit: Looks like it. Although there are some people with different ideas

Achal: brilliant. Give money to people who you know wont work the way you want them too

Mohit: US is hoping Pakistanis will work for them at least some times

Achal: And will they?

Mohit: Pakistan thinks US may leave tomorrow, leaving it all alone stuck between Afghanistan and India. Pakistan is trying to make friends at least one of its neighbors by helping the future power in Afghanistan – the Taliban

Achal: Ah, this is too messed up

Mohit: Yup

Dyslexic Media: What does Praful Patel want?

I have, like many others, a serious love-hate relationship with the Indian media. As a former journalist I feel their pain, but sometimes you just can't take the idiocy that is produced out of the 24-hour news cycle. Therefore, Dreams of a Typewriter (DoT) is introducing a new feature called Dyslexic Media that will point out some of the stupidest stunts that media pulls on a regular basis.

This is a minor issue, but I want to point it out just to show how much media is capable of hyping most innocent events. The Asian Age carried a report today, Aviation Minister wants to shift ministry? Now, always be on guard when the headline has a "?" at its end. It means that the journalist is just covering his ass from the random guess that he is going to make in the story. The report continued:  

'... [the] civil aviation minister Praful Patel on Wednesday said that “maybe”, it was time for him to “move on” from the civil aviation ministry. Soon after, however, the minister told this newspaper he had made the comment “in jest”.'

The report goes on to tell you Patel's career and speculates on why he might be unhappy with his job.

 

This is what really went on. I was in the damn conference where Patel was giving the speech and this is what he said, "I have come to this annual conference for the past four years. That tells you I have been here way too long... May be it is time to move on." It was a joke! It was a joke about how he has been attending the same conference about Air Traffic Controllers for the last four years. How can somebody produce a three-hundred word story from this not-even-funny small joke is beyond me.

 

Ironic part about the whole affair is that Patel's speech was about irresponsible media making too much of a fuss about tiny  issues and sometimes outrightly lying. How did the reporter miss that part?

 

Image: Indian Praful Patel 

Salwa Judum is back...sorta

In 2005-2006, the Government of Chhattisgarh came up with a brilliant solution for the Naxalism problem. Why not give the tribals living in these areas some guns and let them fight it out with Naxals? With this Salwa Judum (Peace March) was born. Cloaking it as a socio-political movement, the government claimed that the tribals were motivated on their own to fight naxals and the government was merely supporting the movement (with guns.) Many tribals were taken up as Special Police Officers (SPOs) and others were just given weapons.

Needless to say giving guns to untrained (or partially trained) young boys with nothing better to do is not gonna end up well. I am not going to go in the gory details (you can read them here [.pdf]) but the situation became very bad. The Judum members started killing each other, sold the weapons to Naxals themselves, abused their power and recruited child soldiers. A case currently ongoing in Supreme Court accuses Judum of "over 500 murders, 99 rapes and 103 acts of arson." With all the heat generating because of this drama, the government did what it does best- locked the file and underwent a selective amnesia. Judum is currently in limbo. It hasn't exactly been disbanded but guns and money has stopped pouring in.

A few days ago, some of the leaders from Salwa Judum, launched a new political forum and held a press conference. The new forum, DKSSS is supposed to find a peaceful resolution to the Naxal strife. The communists immediately responded to this declaration for a 48-hour bandh. 

I talked to a couple of very interesting and knowledgeable people in Chhattisgarh who are working on this issue and they suggested that DKSSS is probably has to do with the Judum leaders trying to remind the government of that they still exist. When Judum came up, these leaders came out openly against the Naxals. Now they have burned the bridges and constantly have to be surrounded with bodyguards. Disowned by the government they are kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. They resent the government for having left them while every Naxal in the neighbourhood is trying to tak a shot at them.

Of course, another angle to the whole issue is the money as it almost always is. While Judum continued a lot of people made a lot of money. With the government support drying up, their own pockets are getting lighter. It may be another reason to push for reviving Judum.

Whatever the reasons might be, for the time being, Judun remains an unresolved issue that may come back to haunt Chhattisgarh for a long time to come.

Image: Judum members being trained
Image Credit: humanrightsforum.org

We still don't know which part of India is Bangladeshi and which part of Bangladesh is ours

A little piece violence erupted over the weekend when some Indians allegedly killed a Bangladeshi in Bangladesh and hid his body in a border village of Garati in India. The Bangladeshis (some 2000 of them) got so miffed that they surrounded the village and burned the thing down, making more than 200 Indian families homeless. Bangladeshi police has arrested 11 guys for the arson.

Now what is wrong with this picture? Only that we are talking of cross-border drama. Two thousand Bangladeshis just came and burned a village down. What happened to the border security, BSF and all the check posts?

This is because the Indian village of Garati, along with hundreds of others, is inside Bangladesh. And many Bangladeshi villages are inside India! So Indian citizens, (140,000 people) who are under Indian law, are merrily living in villages many kilometers inside the Bangladesh border and vice versa.

How? Bangladesh and India share a 4,156 kilometres-long border, of which 6.1 kilomtres is still un-demarcated (under dispute). Meaning that since the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, New Delhi and Dhaka haven't had five minutes to dispose of a frigging 6.1 km of border. Now I am the first one to claim that most international issues are usually too complex but this is 6.1 km. You can walk that much in a decent mall if you shop all day.

While the great government bureaucracies take their sweet time (40 years) to sort this out, about 200,000 people are living in foreign countries, lack basic amenities like water and electricity and have an overall terrible life. Meanwhile, these confusions exacerbate the already growing problems of porous Indo-Bangladesh border like the illegal migration, terrorism, crime and smuggling. 

Good job everyone!

Image: India-Bangladesh border map

Image Credit: US Government

Monday Backgrounder: What the hell is UNSC

Dreams of a Typewriter introduces a new weekly feature: Monday Backgrounder. This feature will discuss a new topic every week giving reader the basic knowledge about the subject so that you can pretend to know things without reading a newspaper... I should be paid for providing such public service. Wait, I already am.

The recent election of India as a non-permanent member of United Nations Security Council has created a lot of chatter. Our newspapers are falling on top of each other making it out to be greater victory than when India wins a match with Pakistan. So what is UNSC?

UNSC is a group of fifteen countries that makes up the security rules in the world. They have the power to impose sanctions (as in nobody will sell guns to this particular country,) ban terrorist organizations and sometimes send in the UN Peacekeeping Force. It is constituted of five permanent members (US, France, Britain, China and Russia) and ten temporary members, the position in which India was just elected. The non-permanent positions, although we like to make a big deal out of it, are not really so special to be elected to. In the last two years, members have included Vietnam, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Gabon (did you ever hear of Gabon?)

Now the funny part about the whole thing is that all five permanent members have "veto powers," that is, they can just say veto and the issue under discussion is immediately dropped. Its a sort of power that women have in relationships, while men always find themselves without any choice when they don't wanna talk about their "feelings." In this case, women are the permanent members while men are the non-permanent lackeys.

This power essentially renders UNSC useless in most of the cases. Since in most of the major topics the five alpha dogs of the world don't agree, the UNSC spends tremendous amount of time and energy discussing issues and countries like Liberia and Sierra Leone that no one cares or has heard about. Sometimes they do discuss important issues like Iran or Iraq (usually only the topics that America cares about.) However, to get an agreement on these issues, US makes side deals with rest of the council to get a unanimous verdict. It has been estimated that to vote alongside the US, non-permanent members usually get around US$20-40 million as bribe aid per vote.

Veto Power for Permanent Members 

Membership of the council does have some benefits likely setting the global agenda on security, but mostly it is just a prestige issue. UNSC can not stop any of the major powers (or even minor players) from doing anything. Wars still happen in the world and usually the fighting countries ignore UNSC declarations like grandma's advice. In fact, there have been studies showing how the UNSC sanctions increase the rogue nature of a rogue state. 

What India, along with Germany and Japan, has been trying for the last few years, is to get UNSC to grant them permanent membership. India considers this to be an acknowledgement from the world that India is now  in big leagues. However, it still remains to be seen if the big dogs are willing to share their precious veto power. 

Circle of Life Comic is back!

A long time ago, I used to make these geeky little comic strips to put up on the internet (the link is now dead) called Circle of Life. They were renowned throughout my circle of friends (seven engineers and a robot) for their terrible sense of humor and awful drawing. The comic was comprised entirely of circles...a step below the stick figures comics. Yet somehow they were capable of attracting some traffic.

Now I have been thinking about how to make Dreams of a Typewriter interesting to people who are not inherently interested in subjects like these. Given the lack of my imagination, all I could come up with was recycling of an old idea. Therefore, from now onwards we will have a weekly feature of political and security related comic strips called Circle of Life. Enjoy! 

So we won the UNSC seat, now what?

I imagine the Indian Ministry of External Affairs will be celebrating tonight, now that after a lot of lobbying they have finally won the non-permanent United Nations Security Council seat. Clearly the government is very happy, since they feel the election as an offset to all the damage that the CWG did to the Rising India rhetoric.

Now what? Obviously, the big thinkers of foreign policy in India Siddharth Varadrajan and C Raja Mohan have already given their take. The non-permanent seat is being seen by many as a sort of audition for India to later become a permanent member. Mr. Varadrajan sternly advises India not to be a US mouthpiece but instead develop its own identity as a "responsible" global power that can take its own decisions. This will raise its reputation in the eyes of rest of the world.

Hmm... I am thinking in very different lines. I would think that we can not possibly get a permanent seat without Uncle Sam's approval. Also, Uncle Sam still has the muscle in the world to do so, even when the rest of the world is not very enthusiastic about it (after all, they got us the NSG approval, albeit with support from some others). Moreover, the American  say-so in the world is waning, or at least the Chinese power is rising and consequently America is growing weaker by comparison. 

And it is not in the Chinese interest to give India a permanent seat. Since there is a lot of overlap in Indian and Chinese interests, why would Beijing want a potentially dissenting voice with veto power? And for precisely the same reason, the US has an interest in getting India the permanent membership because it will somewhat check the influence of China.

So, India has a very short time period before the window closes, that is US gets China as an equal contender in world dominance. After that it will be difficult for the US to take a big step like this without the Chinese approval or at least neutrality. Hence, may be we should take a gamble and become American protege for a little while and get them to sponsor our permanent stay in UNSC. Once we have the permanent lease, then  we can do whatever we want. Meanwhile, who cares what Mauritius or Zanzibar thinks?

Of course, this is just an idea - option in bureaucratic lingo; thank god I am not running the country.

Image: UNSC Chamber in New York
Image Credit: Patrick Gruban

Japan is considering to remove weapons export ban, or is it?

Two days ago, the Japanese Defence Minister, Toshimi Kitazawa told U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates that Japan is going to reconsider its ban on weapons export. A day later a cabinet level secretary from the Japanese Government confirmed it in a press conference. And now unconfirmed reports are coming in of the Japanese Prime Minister having denied to review the forty-year old Japanese law.

Why all the fuss? Since 1967, Tokyo has effectively banned arms export to rest of the world through a legislation. Japan (along with Costa Rica) is one of the world's only two countries which has a pacificist clause in its constitution. There are laws in Japan which ban the country from going to war, keeping an army (of course, Japan has a 250,000-strong "Self Defence Force") or ever tinkering with a nuclear weapon.

However, in recent years there has been a strong minority emerging in Japan that advocates throwing away these bans and develop some strong muscles so that China can't bully Tokyo around. The Americans, who have provided Japan with security guarantee since World War II, would also like to see Japanese chipping in instead of taking a free-ride on American military might. Many conservatives in Washington see a huge expense coming the US way in the next twenty years as the cost of containing the Chinese military machine. They would obviously like to see someone sharing the bill.

With the Chinese coming off as more threatening in the past few months with their naval activities in the Pacific and North Korea constantly in the "crazy" gear, it is logical that the Japanese are worried about their security. Some in Japan have gone to the extent of calling the government to develop its own nuclear weapons, a view that Americans share.

Therefore, the removal of arms export ban is critical as it can been seen as the first step towards Japan reverting to its martial roots. A land of ninjas and Samurais, I am sure Japan has the capacity. The question is do they have the will?

Image: Japanese Kamikaze pilots of World War II

Image Credit: The Telegraph

Indian Maoists being trained in Nepal...and we are just making it worse.

The Ministry of Home Affairs has just warned the state governments that many Indian Maoists are being trained along with the People's Liberation Army of Nepal Maoists by Lashkar-e-Toiba in Nepal. Considering that the Indian Government has thrown all its weight (read below) against letting Nepalese Maoists build a democratically-elected coalition government in the country, what can you expect from them.

The Nepalese Maoists, after a decade of bloody civil war, laid down their arms in 2006 to join the Nepalese democracy. However since 2009, when the Maoists resigned from the government, the country has been a rudderless democracy. Yesterday Nepal failed to elect a new Prime Minister, for the twelfth time in the last two months! 

And to top it all off, the Indian Government is doing all it can to disallow the Maoists from making a coalition government. A month ago, an Indian intelligence operative actually threatened a member of Nepalese Parliament to have his daughter's admission revoked from the embassy-run Kendriya Vidyalaya if the MP does not vote a particular way. True story.

Of course with this attitude towards Maoists, it is no surprise that they are looking at us as their enemies. What does government expect to achieve even if it succeeds in ousting Maoists from the democratic process? Maoists with more than 8,000 troops and experience of fighting civil war for more than a decade. Won't their failure as a democratic party simply boost the extremist factions within them and lead to greater sponsorship to the Indian Maoists?

Taliban allies get paid to protect US bases....for real.

Americans go to Afghanistan. Setup military bases. Bases need guarding. Americans outsource the guarding to some companies. Companies subcontract it to local war lords. War lords are connected to Taliban! Most hilarious story in a very funny American war in Afghanistan.

A year-long investigation led by the US Senate Armed Services Committee revealed that a significant number of US bases are being guarded by Afghans that are either warlords or pay kickbacks to warlords, many with linkages to Taliban. 

The executive summary of the report begins something like this: In 2007, US Air Force gave out contract to Environmental Chemical Corporation (oxymoron?) to expand its airbase in Shindand. ECC contracted ArmorGroup to provide the protection to the construction project (please note that this is not average construction project but a frigging airbase! They don't even put some airbases on maps.) 

Armorgroup subcontracted to war lords called Mr. White and Mr. Pink (looks like ArmorGroup people are fans of Reservoir Dogs.) Soon Mr. White came under an attack. His guards left their guard posts to "revenge the attack," although they came back. A few months later Mr. White was killed by Mr. Pink (who, as it was now obvious, was behind the first attack as well) over some rivalry. ArmorGroup got a new guy named (for the lack of imagination) Mr. White II. Oh and by the way, they continued to employ Mr. Pink. And to top it off, ArmorGroup was aware of the reports link Mr. Pink to the Taliban!

How many exclamation marks can I use in this story? Seriously, what the hell are Americans doing over there? 

Also, Danger Room reports that at least one of the companies, employing war lords, just won another contract! 

...

...

...

Seriously dude. Not cool.

Pakistan-US face-off. Is it gonna fizzle out?

For the past one week Islamabad and Washington are standing on the brink of ending their flimsy alliance in the Afghanistan War. A week ago, a NATO helicopter in pursuit of some Taliban insurgents, crossed Pakistani border and killed two Pakistani soldiers by mistake. In retaliation, Pakistan closed a critical checkpoint on Pakistan-Afghan border that protected the NATO supply route. Since then, there have been three attacks on NATO supply convoys blowing up more than fifty fuel tankers. Americans trying to mollify the Pakistanis, have apologized for the mistake but Islamabad is yet to reopen the checkpoint (for entire story: NYT). 

The face-off is undeniably dramatic and full of emotions. Pakistani public has much pent-up anger and resentment towards the American forces that keep violating Pakistani sovereignty with impunity. While the face-off is going on, NATO drones continue to strike inside Pakistani territory killing several insurgents, fueling the public anger. Nevertheless, despite the deep suspicion and anger on both sides, a US-Pakistan alliance is essential for both parties. 

The Americans cannot find a better supply route for the war in Afghanistan, neither can they afford an openly hostile ISI that currently (at least partly) keeps the insurgents at Af-Pak border in check. Pakistan needs the annual US$ 2 billion aid to drag through its collapsing economy. Therefore, the face-off is likely to fizzle out with the Pakistani government backing down after a little bit of huffing and puffing. In 2008, there had been a very similar face-off between US and Pakistan when the drone operations inside Pakistani territory were first revealed. It simply fizzled out. 

Image Source: Wikimedia

Karzai talks to Taliban; Indian security circuit goes in paranoid overdrive

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has opened up talks with Taliban to reach a peaceful solution to a twenty-year long war. In the last twenty-four hours, both White House and Mullah Omar have given the talk thumbs-up further strengthening its chances to succeed. And of course, this has sent Indian security circuit to a frenzy of worries. 

New Delhi is worried about losing out in its competition with Pakistan to control Afghanistan, once again. If the talks succeed (which is in no way guaranteed) Taliban is likely to get a significant share of power in Kabul. US, with a President already looking a way out of Afghanistan, will be quick to pack its bags, declare victory and go home. And all that will be left in Afghanistan will be a weak and unpopular President, a legitimized Taliban and their friends the ISI. Billions of dollars of Indian aid and all that nosing around of R&AW agents around Kabul for the last ten years will go down the drain.

For the past twenty years India and Pakistan have been competing over the dominance over Afghanistan.  While the Pakistani Army considers Afghanistan critical to gain "Strategic Depth" in a war with India, New Delhi feels it has to deny ISI eastern Afghan region as base to train and equip terrorists.

After the fall of communist regime in Kabul in 1992, India and Pakistan backed different war lords to run the country. While India gave millions of dollars in aid to the Tajik commander Ahmed Shah Massoud, Pakistan supported first the Pashtun leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and then Taliban. Advantage: Pakistan.

After 9/11 and US invasion of Afghanistan, while India claimed a hands-off approach in Afghanistan, it spent billions of dollars in aid and sponsored extensive diplomatic and espionage activity. Meanwhile, Pakistan struggling with its own problems, was kept at bay by the US from meddling directly in the Kabul government. Advantage: India

If Taliban comes back to power as a political party and the US leaves this region of the world, Pakistan is again likely to gain upper hand. However, the question to be asked is, was there any other scenario possible? Was an outcome possible where India did retain its influence in Kabul? I can't think of one.

Image: President Hamid Karzai in discussion with US President Obama
Image Credit: Wikimedia

Musharraf reveals terrible secrets...Nobody cares

Today, Pakistan's former military dictator President Pervez Musharraf revealed a shocking secret, admitting that Pakistani Government was involved in training of terrorists operating in India! The statement which caught the attention of everyone for all of two minutes evoked the sarcastic remarks like "oh really?" and "we had no idea."

In the past month, Musharraf has made several other revelations including the possibility of a coup in Pakistan and the secret deal that he had made with Bhutto drop the charges against her husband, Zardari, while he was in power. All these revelations have made a very small dent in the public consciousness primarily because everyone already knew about them.

Why does the ex-general suddenly feel so chatty? A fortnight ago, Musharraf announced his plans to launch a political party in Pakistan based on the overwhelming response he has received from his followers on Facebook (*snicker*). Since then almost everyone in Pakistani politics including low profile politicians have written him off. Moreover, the media (especially the South Asian media) is practically showing no interest in his vision for the Pakistani political future. Hence, the strategy to grab headlines. 

May be someone should mention to him that until his shocking revelations give out more information that my barber, nobody would care.

Image Source: Wikimedia

Mozambique: Another theater for India-China trade war

I will preface by saying that I might be wrong on this, but seems to me that India is gearing up to protect its economic position in Mozambique as China tries to big-foot its smaller neighbor out of the African continent. A couple of days ago, India extended a credit line of US$ 500 million to Mozambique while Mozambican President was visiting New Delhi. Considering that until last week, the total amount of money extended through previous six lines of credit was only US$ 140 million (source: MEA), this figure is considerable jump. Why is it so?

It seems that India and China both are vying the extensive coal deposits in Mozambique. In the past India, along with Australia, has dominated the Mozambican coal reserves. TATA Steel and SAIL, both have extensive interests in the country. Traditionally, China has shown little interest in Mozambican coal and gas reserves, only importing agricultural products and fisheries from the country. Although the trade relations is on the meteoritic rise, China has restricted itself to importing food and selling machinery. That is, until three months ago. In June, 2010, Chinese steel companies announced their plans of entering Mozambique and investing billions of dollars in developing the coal fields in the country.

Obviously, the Chinese entry into Mozambican coal business is likely to prove a tough competition to the Indian steel companies just like the Indian oil companies have been outbid across the globe by the Chinese. In a reactionary strike not to lose dominance in another African country in race to get raw materials, India seems to have replied with doling out money to the Mozambican government.

Of course, India cannot match China in the amount of aid given. What it can match the Chinese is in how the aid is given. The Chinese are infamous in Africa for not allowing technology transfers and training to the Africans. India can win some favors in the African markets by treating them better than the Chinese in this respect.

Update: A new Bin Laden video released!

Just a quick update. Osama Bin Laden has released a new video criticizing the Muslim countries for spending more on their military than their citizens. May be in his old age OBL is turning into a commie...lol. The authenticity of the video has not been verified as of yet.